Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.496849 6.551482 7.718539 9.100856 10.688237 12.448734 14.543432
2025-02-16 3.579243 4.892046 6.513270 8.639637 11.329458 14.591415 18.815676
2025-02-23 2.445104 3.784743 5.608712 8.220211 11.800709 16.467709 22.927824
2025-03-02 1.718478 2.986328 4.873157 7.792547 12.082279 18.022776 26.708015
2025-03-09 1.310755 2.528496 4.489294 7.733055 12.785714 20.140967 31.381849
2025-03-16 1.000910 2.135963 4.105655 7.572806 13.267308 21.934509 35.706375
2025-03-23 0.861237 2.001330 4.106541 8.003983 14.681687 25.207478 42.445749
2025-03-30 0.707680 1.795690 3.935665 8.101984 15.542950 27.676453 48.131646
2025-04-06 0.577991 1.601001 3.741707 8.116466 16.243378 29.922916 53.611794
2025-04-13 0.471473 1.425364 3.546632 8.089210 16.849536 32.041538 59.014570
2025-04-20 0.436633 1.411496 3.681260 8.713760 18.689055 36.366887 68.323395
2025-04-27 0.380248 1.325609 3.641988 8.977430 19.872874 39.636345 76.056209
2025-05-04 0.332274 1.251716 3.624058 9.300222 21.236834 43.387308 84.974079
2025-05-11 0.272118 1.122080 3.449157 9.261594 21.892153 45.927854 91.987477
2025-05-18 0.212342 0.969110 3.181009 8.969204 21.995782 47.454354 97.300801
2025-05-25 0.161071 0.820515 2.886408 8.561449 21.801775 48.388517 101.584865
2025-06-01 0.131421 0.737170 2.751372 8.515966 22.375093 50.833502 108.795350
2025-06-08 0.104302 0.649401 2.580363 8.348704 22.653492 52.706775 115.032383
2025-06-15 0.095810 0.639752 2.648689 8.819526 24.430835 57.711872 127.527720
2025-06-22 0.081250 0.593383 2.586955 8.926862 25.365878 61.045372 136.948288
2025-06-29 0.067526 0.542776 2.497823 8.942917 26.082420 63.967799 145.715355
2025-07-06 0.055501 0.493197 2.398725 8.913436 26.682263 66.678454 154.200704
2025-07-13 0.053887 0.505452 2.531388 9.591426 29.103358 73.438431 171.160883